The big questions for day two of Royal Ascot are: how much has it rained in Berkshire overnight and when will Frankie Dettori, the meeting's most successful jockey currently riding, get off the mark with a winner?
To answer the first question, even if the course managed to miss any deluges Tuesday night into this morning there's not much point following horses who prefer underfoot conditions to be rattlingly fast.
Times held up pretty well yesterday despite the inclement conditions. But today's ground will likely be on the yielding side of good and that has implications for the US speedball sprinters looking to scorch down the Ascot turf in the opening race, the Queen Mary Stakes.
The going also has implications for today's longest race, the Queen's Vase. Ironically, this race's distance was reduced a few years ago from two miles to a mile and six furlongs. Today's conditions will make the run-in seem like a very long way.
As for jockeys, well, we saw yesterday when Ryan Moore (currently Royal Ascot's second winning-most rider) bagged a brace of wins, that it's difficult to keep big-name pilots out of the frame at high-profile meetings like this.
As far as Dettori's concerned, he's got a quality book of Wednesday rides and it would be surprising if he left the course tonight still winnerless. That said, it's an ultra-competitive card and big-priced winners would not be a total surprise today.
Be lucky!
PHILIPPOS
Royal Ascot (Stalls: straight course centre; round course, inside)
NAP: WALDGEIST
NB: SENIORITY
2:30 Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) Five furlongs
27 fillies go to post which means it's entirely possible the field will split into two, or even three, groups. Kimari (6/1) is a fascinating raider from the US whose trainer has an excellent Royal Ascot record. She's difficult to leave out of calculations, but the big field and underfoot conditions may not be to her liking. That might offer one of the Godolphin pair of Divine Spirit (11/1) and THEORY OF TIME (14/1) a chance to land the spoils at an attractive price. At humungous odds, have to mention the French-trained Brand New Day (50/1) who appears over-priced and may be worth an each-way investment on a day which could see a string of shock results. Look for bookmakers paying five places.
3:05 Queen's Vase (Group 2) One mile, six furlongs
Traditionally a race competed for by the Classic three-year-old generation regarded as a little bit slow for the highest-profile 12 furlong contests, but who may yet develop into contenders for the St Leger run later in the season in September. All eyes will be on Norway (4/1) who many think will bounce back from his 8th in the recent Epsom Derby and win this comfortably. As an Aidan O'Brien inmate, you can't ignore his claims, although personal preference is for his slightly longer-priced stable-mate, WESTERN AUSTRALIA (9/2).
3:40 Prince of Wales's Stakes (Group 1) One mile, two furlongs
Only eight runners declared and, depending on the underfoot conditions, the field may be further reduced before post-time. It's currently an extremely classy octet, however, and the best bet of the day may be on whether the race produces a photo-finish. The one horse I don't fancy, ironically, is the current favourite Magical. With slight doubts over Sea Of Class's participation, preference is for the French-trained WALDGEIST (6/1) who won the Prix Ganay on his seasonal debut back in April at ParisLongchamp. Unusually, bookmakers could well have over-priced his chances.
4:20 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) One mile (straight course)
A tricky affair with 17 runners currently declared. Perhaps this will be the moment for jockey Frankie Dettori to get on the scoresheet with the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Rawda (4/1). Another runner towards the head of the market and whose chances it is difficult to rule out is I CAN FLY (5/1). If further rain fell throughout the day and there was some serious dig in the ground by the time of this race, the colossally-priced Hand On Heart (50/1) may surprise a few of her more fancied rivals by out-running her odds.
5:00 Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) One mile (straight course)
If you're a fan of competitive handicaps, not many come with more history than this little head-scratcher with just the 30 runners currently set to go to post. The talking horse for the past fortnight and beyond has been the James Tate-trained New Graduate. It's true his form coming into the race looks bomb-proof, but it will still need all of jockey Frankie Dettori's skill and horsemanship to win from stall one. He's currently a 6/1 shot, or thereabouts, and if you have to include him in your calculations there's a chance his price could lengthen the closer it gets to post-time. Drawn on the other side of the track is SENIORITY (18/1) an interesting runner owned, appropriately, by the Queen. Historians will tell you that Her Majesty won this very race in 1953 with a horse called Choir Boy. Two others to consider at hefty odds are Key Victory (20/1) and Circus Couture (33/1), the latter being placed in this race last year.
5:35 Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed race) Five furlongs
As with Tuesday, not the easiest getting out stakes with just the 24 lightly-raced colts and fillies from which to find the winner. Plenty come into the race with a win under their belts, but not so many can boast victories with give underfoot. One that can is the Mark Johnson-trained IFFRAAZ (16/1) who may well have seemed like an over-priced runner by about 6pm tonight. Two others to consider are the US raider Foolish Humor (10/1) and Dylan De Vega (12/1).
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