Do I think Kingman can win this Saturday's 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket? Yes. Would I back him at the generally available odds around the 5/4 mark on the Tuesday before the big race this weekend? Not on your Nellie.
For a start, those fleet-of-finger and with access to a betting exchange could probably achieve similar odds in-running as contenders for the first Classic of the season pass the 'six pole' at HQ this weekend. I can't imagine Kingman will attempt a Frankel-style blitz from the front in his chase for glory. It's much more likely that big race pilot, James Doyle, will attempt to make his move as the field sweeps past the Bushes about a quarter of a mile from home.
There's certainly no doubting the credentials of the horse's trainer, John Gosden, to land the big race. And owner Prince Khalid Abdullah is hardly a stranger to the Newmarket winner's enclosure on the first Saturday in May. But whether Kingman can emulate the likes of Dancing Brave and Zafonic and triumph in this race, I'm still not so sure.
After all, there's the not inconsiderable obstacle of Aidan O'Brien's Australia to contend with (plus a Dewhurst winner from the same yard in the shape of War Command). Trainer Richard Hannon Junior is also bullish about Toormore, his unbeaten Craven Stakes winner. There's even a Spanish challenger this year, Noozhoh Canarias, who ran really well in the big 2-y-o race for colts in Paris on Arc day last October.
Most eye-catching of all, perhaps, is the thought that you don't often get a chance to back a Breeders' Cup winning juvenile in an English Classic at juicy double-figure odds. Yet that's the scenario facing punters currently with Outstrip, this year's lone contender from the mighty Godolphin stable, who currently trades around the 20/1 mark.
There's no doubt that Kingman's win in the Greenham at Newbury was an impressive trial. Even more taking, some have suggested, than Frankel's victory in the same race three years ago on the road to Classic glory (how time flies). Should Kingman go on to win the 2KG then best of British luck and here's to him enjoying a stellar season to boot.
I'd be more confident about Kingman if he was running in the Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas) at Longchamp a week later. In fact, faced with that prospect, I'd be looking to swamp the PMU counters with Euros, travellers' cheques, bitcoins, et al to get on.
But this weekend, I'm just not so sure, especially with little rain forecast for Suffolk. Would it be the biggest turn-up in Classic history if Australia, War Command, Outstrip or another rival were to commit equine regicide on the day? For me the answer has to be 'no'.
