Thursday 5 February 2015

When the price isn't right

Here's a question for you.

There are just under five weeks until the Champion Hurdle, the day one highlight of the 2015 Cheltenham Festival. What's the betting that the price of the current ante-post favourite, Faugheen, will be bigger on the day of the race than it is trading at currently?

I'd go 4/5. That's right: 4/5. Do not adjust your set.

There's no doubt that the Willie Mullins-trained unbeaten son of Germany is a very good horse. A winner of the 2m5f Neptune at last year's Festival, Faugheen would be following in the hoofprints of that fine hurdling brace Istabraq and Hardy Eustace if he were to go on and lift Cheltenham's Grade One crown the following season.

There's every chance he'll do it, notwithstanding the fact he clattered a couple of hurdles en route to success in the novices' contest last year (a fact that many pundits who are now aboard the 'Faugheen the Machine' bandwagon appear to have forgotten subsequently).

But whether Faugheen emerges triumphant or not in March isn't the question here. The issue is to do with his price, today, on 5 Feb 2015. A quick trawl via the Oddschecker website reveals that several high street bookmaking firms are trading in the range even money to 5/4.

That strikes me as poor value 30+ days out from the race, even if you've been able to snaffle a non-runner, no bet concession into your wager as part of the transaction.

The day-of-race betting markets at the Festival have become extremely competitive in recent years with punters confronted with a flood of enhanced last-minute offers as bookmakers scramble for business and balance their books.

There has to be a fighting chance that 5/4 or bigger is available for Faugheen on the very day of the race. You certainly wouldn't catch me wading in for a punt at his current price.