Saturday 4 July 2020

Russian to a conclusion on Derby day

If you've never been to Epsom Downs on Derby day there's a sizeable hole in your race-going CV.

Unless you're one of a privileged few, there's sadly no chance of plugging this gap today thanks to restrictions around the racecourse because of the coronavirus pandemic.

A hundred thousand people would normally gather on the Downs to watch the action unfold from Epsom's vast expanse of in-field, while the exclusive Queen's Stand is the place for those who prefer top hats, tails and a perfect viewing vantage point.

The grandstands will be deathly quiet today, but that won't prevent this bizarre, horseshoe-shaped racecourse - with a drop the height of Nelson's Column - from continuing to be the true test of the thoroughbred racehorse.

The Oaks (the premier middle-distance Classic race for 3yo fillies) was first run in 1779 and the Derby (for 3yo colts and fillies) a year later. This historic pair of contests have never been run on the same day until, you've guessed it, today.

ITV is broadcasting six races live and, just because the pubs have re-opened, there's no reason not to enjoy the world's most famous flat race from the comfort of your living room sofa. The Jockey Club (Epsom's owners) has even produced a free race card. Download it here.

With interrupted preparations thanks to the Covid-19 crisis for all the contenders, the two big races pose just as many questions as answers.

Will the two current favourites Love (in the Oaks) and English King (in the Derby) enjoy trouble-free runs before each claiming their crowns? Of course they won't! It's Derby day so expect thrills a'plenty and hang on to your topper.

Hopefully Philippos can deliver a winner or two to cap off an historic day of sport. Good luck! (Follow me on Twitter: @moneyandmedia).

PHILIPPOS

Saturday 4th July 2020

Going: good

As these are crazy Covid times, where relevant I'm suggesting three bets per race: 1) a selection with a good chance of winning; 2) an each-way suggestion capable of out-running his or her odds; 3) where the fields are large enough, an "exotic" that is, a combination bet that can produce huge dividends for a small outlay.

Eg, a 50p combination exacta of three different horses (that requires two of the three selections to place first and second) costs £3. A 50p combination trifecta of three horses costs the same, but you need to place first, second AND third.

NAP: Russian Emperor
NB: Modern News

1:50 Investec Woodcote EBF Stakes Silver 6 furlongs
A prestigious race for 2yo juveniles. None of the field have run more than twice in their lives. Balance is an important asset, so whoever deals best with Epsom's odd contours should likely win. Small field, so two win bets is the recommendation here.

Win: Modern News
Win: Mutazawwed

2:25 Investec Surrey Stakes Listed 7 furlongs  
Another smallish field where each runner has won over this intermediate distance. Again, two win bets is the suggested strategy and I'm willing to take on the short-priced favourite.

Win: Oh This Is Us
Win: Shine So Bright

3:00 Investec Handicap 1 mile 2 furlongs
This is more like it. A 16-runner handicap where successful each-way wagers will be paid down to at least 4th, and maybe even 5th, place provided all run. Shop around! Bookmakers are desperate for your business as we come out of lockdown.

Win: Caradoc
Each-way: Data Protection
Life-changer: combination exacta, Caradoc, Data Protection, Johnny Drama

3:40 Investec Oaks Group 1 1 mile 4 furlongs
The first of the day's two big races. A small, but select, field of fillies featuring a 1,000 Guineas Classic winner (Love) plus a recent Royal Ascot winner (Frankly Darling). The former is classy but needs to show she can handle today's extra half-mile race distance. Meanwhile, has the latter recovered from her exertions of just a fortnight ago?

Win: Frankly Darling.
Each-way: Bharani Star

4:15 Princess Elizabeth Stakes Sponsored By Investec Group 3 1 mile 1/2 furlong
A race for 3yo who are possibly just short of the very highest class. Cloak Of Spirits ran well for a long way in the 1,000 Guineas and got stuck in soft ground at Royal Ascot. Can she bounce back or is this a third race too far in a shortish time? She's definitely up against an improving sort in the shape of Fooraat.

Win: Fooraat
Each-way: Summer Romance

4:55 Investec Derby Group 1 1 mile 4 furlongs
This is the big one with potential for an upset thanks to the race's topsy-turvy rescheduling. Master trainer Aidan O'Brien is going for a record-breaking (not to mention astonishing) 8th win in the race. But he's saddling six runners - so is one of them a superstar contender in waiting or should we be looking elsewhere? The obvious alternative is Kameko, recent winner of the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. He's a class act for sure. But, like Love in the Oaks, there are questions about his unproven stamina, especially with a big field and a likely honest pace from flag fall. Whoever wins requires stamina in abundance and big-priced outsiders making the frame are not uncommon.

Win: Russian Emperor
Each-way: Worthily
Life-changer: combination exacta AND trifecta, Russian Emperor, Worthily, Kameko

5:35 Investec Zebra Handicap 7 furlongs
The getting out stakes and a tricky handicap at that. At least there'll be no queues in the car park!

Win: Tintoretto
Each-way: Dream Today
Life-changer: combination exacta, Tintoretto, Dream Today, Straight Right

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